Elections in France
April 19, 2022
On April 10th, the French electorate cast their ballot in the first round of the nation’s presidential elections. Of the many candidates, only three received more than 10% of the vote. The leftist Mélenchon garnered higher support than expected, and was the chosen candidate for 22.0% of voters. Marine Le Pen, the French far-right candidate, came in second, with backing from 23.2% of voters. Finally, Emmanuel Macron, the centrist incumbent, came in first, receiving 27.8% of the vote.
Of all the first-round candidates, only the most popular two will advance to the second-round in the presidential elections. This means that Macron and Le Pen will face-off, come April 24th, just as they did in 2017. While Macron won the 2017 election by a large margin, voter discontent has grown and polling averages show the race becoming more competitive. Currently, polling averages show Macron with 53% and Le Pen with 47%, meaning this is a much tighter race than before.
The two largest factors currently influencing the minds of voters are the rising cost of living and the war in Ukraine. Le Pen has had to distance herself and her party from the Kremlin, to which her party is still in-debt to. Her admiration for Putin more broadly, however, has not had a meaningful impact on her polling, which is still growing due to consumer discontent.
While some analysts still think Macron is the clear favorite for this race, others warn that too much complacency just might hand a win to Le Pen. For example, if Mélenchon’s voters from the first round were to vote in the second round, they would most likely choose Macron, as he is the closest ideologically. However, if they decide to stay home and not vote, the race could be tilted in favor of Le Pen. So, will the “cordon sanitaire” keeping right-wing parties out of power crumble, or survive and allow Macron another term?
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